Brent traded at $104.50 on Tuesday, down 0.24%, after settling 7.6% lower on Monday, its steepest single-day fall since the recent escalation. WTI settled 7.4% lower at $96.46, its biggest daily decline since July 27.
Trump reportedly said Iran wanted to make a deal, and Iran's president said Tehran is willing to negotiate.
Diplomatic signals are easing the war premium in crude, lowering energy costs for fertilizer, diesel and freight, though a deal is not yet confirmed and prices could reverse on setbacks.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.