◂ Event Timeline

Mar 17, 2020MACROGlobal

Brent crude sinks below $30 a barrel as recession fears weigh

Crude oil settled below $30 a barrel as the coronavirus pandemic slowed economic growth and reduced oil demand. Saudi Arabia and Russia continued their contest for market share.

WHY IT MATTERS

Weaker growth expectations and falling crude prices pressure energy-linked commodities and reduce diesel and freight costs for feed buyers.

AFFECTSCrude Oil (Brent)▼Crude Oil (WTI)▼

SOURCE
reuters.comLaura SanicolaMar 17, 2020

Price reaction & history

Crude Oil (Brent)▼bearishSO FAR1d -2.2%5d -12.6%20d -12.5%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

Jul 5, 2022Oil tumbles as much as 10%, breaks below $100 as recession fears mount-4.9%
Apr 27, 2020U.S. oil plunges 25%, Brent falls below $20 a barrel | Reuters+19.9%
Jul 6, 2022Oil slides 2% to 12-week low on fears of global recession-3.2%
Sep 18, 2024Crude oil prices today: WTI, Brent lower as Fed cuts rates+1.5%
Jul 12, 2022Brent crude settles below $100/bbl on higher dollar, weak demand outlook+0.7%

Crude Oil (WTI)▼bearishSO FAR1d -6.6%5d -19.2%20d -30.3%

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

Dec 24, 2018US crude falls below $43 a barrel as stock market sinks-0.5%
Jul 5, 2022Oil tumbles as much as 10%, breaks below $100 as recession fears mount-3.9%
Jul 5, 2022U.S. oil just tumbled below $100 a barrel — What that says about recession fears and tight crude supplies - MarketWatch-3.9%
Apr 27, 2020U.S. oil plunges 25%, Brent falls below $20 a barrel | Reuters+21.1%
Dec 5, 2022Recession fears spur wheat cuts – The Seam-11.1%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Linked price moves

Crude Oil (WTI)-13.2%1 period to Mar 17, 2020-3.8σ
Directly describes crude settling below $30 on March 17 as pandemic recession fears cut demand while the Saudi-Russia market-share fight continued.
Crude Oil (Brent)-23.0%5 periods to Mar 19, 2020-4.5σ
Brent sank below $30 on Mar 17 on recession fears and Saudi-Russia market-share contest, within the window.
Crude Oil (WTI)-30.6%5 periods to Mar 18, 2020-6.5σ
Crude settled below $30 on March 17 on recession fears and the Saudi-Russia market-share fight, which fed the weekly decline.
Crude Oil (Brent)-18.5%1 period to Mar 18, 2020-4.2σ
Brent settling below $30 on March 17 on recession fears and the Saudi-Russia market share fight set up the next-day extension of the selloff.

Crude Oil (Brent) BRENT · GP ▸

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Crude Oil (WTI) WTI · GP ▸

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