Brent crude settles below $100/bbl on higher dollar, weak demand outlook

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Sep 10, 2024Oil settles near 3-year low on weak demand outlook | Reuters+1.7%
• Sep 7, 2020Brent Crude Tumbles Below $40 in Wake of Souring Demand Outlook - Bloomberg-6.1%
• Oct 1, 2020Oil dips nearly 4% on weak demand outlook and higher OPEC output+1.7%
• Aug 21, 2023Crude oil settles lower as hope fades for Chinese demand-0.5%
• Mar 30, 2020Crude oil futures drop as pandemic darkens demand outlook+21.9%

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Sep 10, 2024Oil settles near 3-year low on weak demand outlook | Reuters+2.1%
• Sep 7, 2020Brent Crude Tumbles Below $40 in Wake of Souring Demand Outlook - Bloomberg-6.2%
• Oct 1, 2020Oil dips nearly 4% on weak demand outlook and higher OPEC output-0.6%
• Aug 21, 2023Crude oil settles lower as hope fades for Chinese demand-1.2%
• Mar 30, 2020Crude oil futures drop as pandemic darkens demand outlook+64.1%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Dec 13, 2024Dollar set for best week in a month on cautious Fed outlook for 2025+1.3%
• Feb 24, 2023Dollar steady on higher-for-longer rates outlook; yen volatile | Financial Post+0.0%
• Jun 1, 2026Investors expect US dollar to break higher as Fed battles inflation+1.0%
• Sep 17, 2020Dollar edges higher as Fed outlook lifts U.S. yields | Financial Post+1.6%
• Aug 28, 2026Dollar Strength and Increased Middle East Oil Flows Weigh on Crude Prices-0.2%