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EUR/USD rose to its highest since October 22 near 1.1250 before slipping back to about 1.1200 as crude oil and the dollar fell after President Trump signalled more time for diplomacy with Iran. ECB member Escriva said the energy price shock has been bigger than expected, though Banque de France's Moulin called the wider economic impact moderate.
A weaker dollar on falling crude lifts the euro, but the currency move is driven by oil and geopolitics rather than euro-area fundamentals, so it is a currency story with limited direct effect on feed commodity prices.
fxstreet.comJoshua GibsonNov 2, 2026
octabroker.comNov 3, 2026After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
