
Oil prices fell more than 7% on March 18, 2021, their biggest one-day drop since the previous summer, extending a fifth straight daily decline. The selloff followed rising COVID-19 cases in Europe and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
Lower crude weakens the energy-linked cost base for feed and biofuel inputs and pulls down diesel and fertilizer costs over time. A stronger dollar also makes dollar-priced grains and meals less attractive to foreign buyers.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Directly describes the March 18 drop of over 7%, tied to rising European COVID cases (demand) and a stronger dollar.
Describes the roughly 7% drop in oil prices driven by rising European COVID cases and a stronger dollar. That is the same selloff, but it happened on March 18, five days before the 2021-03-23 move, so the date fit is imperfect.