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Northwest European diesel refining margins eased on Monday as hopes for a diplomatic end to the Iran war weighed on prices, with low-sulphur gasoil at a $69.56/bbl premium to Brent. ADNOC's CEO said global inventories have fallen nearly 1 billion barrels since Hormuz shipping was disrupted, and EU and UK diesel imports rose in October.
Tight European diesel and LNG supply keeps energy and fertilizer costs high, which feeds into feed production costs. Easing diplomacy hopes lower the price, but low inventories limit the downside.
rallies.aiRallies AINov 2, 2026After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
