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WTI fell more than 5% on Monday to about $96.65 a barrel, after closing the prior Friday at $104.03, its highest level since May. The drop followed reports that Iran's president said the Supreme Leader had granted the government negotiating powers, and that Trump favours giving diplomacy more time.
Iran says reopening the Strait of Hormuz depends on the US lifting its naval blockade and sanctions, and no final agreement has been announced.
Easing fears of a Hormuz disruption removes a large risk premium from crude, which lowers the cost of diesel and freight for feed supply chains. Renewed US strikes after the midterms would reverse this and could quickly push prices back above $100.
fxstreet.comVishal ChaturvediNov 2, 2026After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
WTI tumbled over 5% on Nov 2 after Iran's Supreme Leader granted negotiating powers and Trump favored diplomacy, the same de-escalation catalyst that drove Brent lower.
