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Wheat prices are moving sideways as traders wait to see whether Russia actually reopens ship departures from the Sea of Azov by November 15. Implementation has been slow, partly due to poor weather.
A planned trilateral meeting between Russia, Ukraine and the United States in early November has raised hopes of de-escalation.
Uncertainty over Black Sea shipments keeps wheat and corn trade flows unclear, and any reopening would add export supply. Rapeseed is falling with crude oil and canola, which weakens oilseed meal and oil values.
agrarheute.comDr. Olaf ZinkeNov 2, 2026After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 31 past neutral geopolitics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
