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Chicago wheat jumped about 70 cents early in the week after Russia reportedly quit the UN-brokered Black Sea grain deal. Prices fell back to their starting level after Russia said it would rejoin, and the original deal was set to expire.
Headline-driven swings show how sensitive wheat is to Black Sea shipping risk, and the deal's expiry leaves future export flows uncertain.
abc.net.auMatt BrannNov 5, 2022After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Describes the week's Black Sea deal whipsaw, with wheat jumping about 70 cents on Russia's exit and then reversing, which is the volatility that surrounds the 11/7 move.
