
Paraná's agriculture department Deral forecasts the state's 2026/27 soybean crop at 22.75 million tonnes, up 4% year on year. Excess rain has cut the winter grain crop by 28%, with wheat output down 34% to 1.9 million tonnes.
A larger Paraná soybean crop adds modest supply to the Brazilian market, which is mildly bearish for soybeans. The sharp wheat shortfall tightens regional wheat supply, which is supportive for wheat prices.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.