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Univ. of Illinois economist Todd Hubbs says soybean price direction through harvest depends on demand prospects, since acreage and yield uncertainty dominate. USDA lowered 2018-19 crush by 15 million bushels to 2.085 billion, and exports are estimated at 1.7 billion bushels, down 434 million year on year.
A weaker crush and sharply lower exports point to ample soybean and meal supplies, which is bearish for soymeal prices. Price strength would require strong demand, especially from China, over the coming year.
morningagclips.comKyleJul 31, 2019
proag.comJul 31, 2019After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 114 past neutral report events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
