
Indonesia's statistics agency BPS reports September 2026 rice and corn output fell year on year, with rice harvested area down 19.4%. BPS expects rice production declines to continue through October–December as El Niño, stronger than in 2023, weighs on crops.
Lower Indonesian rice and corn output may increase import demand and reduce domestic feed grain supply, supporting corn and rice prices regionally.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.