Brazilian coffee farmers are reported to be switching from frost-damaged coffee to soybeans and corn after the worst frost in 27 years. Local estimates say up to 11% of planted area will be hit, with coffee output impaired for at least two seasons.
Dry spring weather is also raising concerns for flowering.
Acreage shifting from coffee to grain could add to Brazilian soybean and corn supply over time, which is mildly bearish for those grains. Continued drought would add upside risk to coffee and feed-grain prices if spring rains fail.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.