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Brent crude is trading above $116 a barrel despite recovering Gulf oil exports. Tanker attacks, rising freight costs and insurance premiums are sustaining a war risk premium, and diesel shortages persist.
The article notes that renewed US-Iran hostilities after the midterm elections could push prices higher.
Physical tightness and higher tanker and insurance costs keep diesel and shipping expensive for feed producers and importers. Prices are likely to stay elevated unless a credible peace deal emerges.
oilprice.comIrina SlavNov 2, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
