
Asian spot LNG prices rose about 30 cents to around $7.40/mmBtu, the highest of 2016, after OPEC and Russia agreed to cut crude output. Oil rose more than 10 percent to above $53 a barrel on the announcement.
With about 80 percent of Asian LNG contracts indexed to crude, the oil rally feeds directly into LNG contract and spot pricing, and higher shipping costs add further support.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.