
A Reuters survey found OPEC output fell 170,000 bpd in August from its 2017 high, mainly due to a Libyan outage of over 350,000 bpd. OPEC compliance rose to 89% in August, up 5 points from July.
Lower Libyan supply tightens crude balances, supporting energy prices and the cost of diesel and fertilizer inputs for feed producers.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.