Oil extends rally on Kazakhstan unrest and Libyan outages

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2017OPEC oil output slips from 2017 high on renewed Libyan outages+5.8%
• Apr 18, 2022Oil rises over 1% as Libya outages add to Russia supply fears-4.8%
• Apr 29, 2026Oil prices extend multi-day rally as Trump issues new threat to Iran-1.9%
• Jun 30, 2022Oil Ekes Out a Weekly Gain Amid Libya and Ecuador Export Woes - Bloomberg-11.8%
• Oct 22, 2024Oil settles up 2% as Middle East war rages and supplies tighten-2.9%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2017OPEC oil output slips from 2017 high on renewed Libyan outages+6.8%
• Apr 18, 2022Oil rises over 1% as Libya outages add to Russia supply fears-4.0%
• Apr 29, 2026Oil prices extend multi-day rally as Trump issues new threat to Iran+2.2%
• Jun 30, 2022Oil Ekes Out a Weekly Gain Amid Libya and Ecuador Export Woes - Bloomberg-6.3%
• Oct 22, 2024Oil settles up 2% as Middle East war rages and supplies tighten-4.8%