
A Reuters survey found OPEC oil output fell by 460,000 bpd in December to 32.68 million bpd, the largest monthly drop since January 2017. Saudi Arabia made an early start on supply cuts while Iran and Libya posted involuntary declines.
A formal OPEC+ accord to cut 1.2 million bpd in 2019 took effect that Tuesday.
Lower OPEC supply tightens the crude balance, supporting oil prices that have slid to about $56 from an October high. Lower crude also feeds into diesel and energy costs for feed mills and farm operations.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.