
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike in the current tightening move. Chair Warsh reportedly resisted White House pressure in launching the tightening cycle.
Higher US policy rates strengthen the dollar and raise financing costs for feed buyers and grain merchants, which typically pressures commodity prices denominated in dollars and can weigh on fund length in grains and oilseeds.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.