Fed Chief Warsh Puts Prices Over Jobs, Lifting Rate-Hike Odds to 57%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Feb 6, 2026Won-Dollar Rate Breaks 1,470 on Risk-Off Sentiment - Seoul Economic Daily-0.8%
• Aug 1, 2019Gold prices slip to two-week low as US Fed dashes hopes of more rate cuts+1.1%
• Jul 26, 2023Fed lifts rates, Powell leaves door open to another hike in September+0.6%
• Sep 26, 2018Gold prices fall following Fed rate hike+0.2%
• Nov 4, 2018Seoul: Stocks fall on trade war concerns, Fed rate hike fears - The Business Times+0.7%

After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Jul 26, 2023Fed lifts rates, Powell leaves door open to another hike in September-13.9%
• Sep 23, 2021Gold prices ease as dollar firms on Fed rate hike comments | Financial Post+1.3%
• Dec 15, 2016Fed lifts rates, sees faster pace of hikes in Trump's first year-2.2%
• Jun 17, 2021Dollar surges to two-month high on Fed rate-hike projection-2.4%
• Jan 28, 2022Hawkish Fed a headwind for commodity prices | Capital Economics+1.3%

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jul 22, 2024China cuts lending rates to boost economic growth following weaker Q2 GDP data-1.8%
• Jul 26, 2023Fed lifts rates, Powell leaves door open to another hike in September-4.5%
• Dec 15, 2016Fed lifts rates, sees faster pace of hikes in Trump's first year-1.7%
• May 3, 2017Dollar, June Rate-Hike Odds Soar | Investing.com AU+0.8%
• Jun 17, 2021Dollar surges to two-month high on Fed rate-hike projection-4.4%