
Market pressure is building on the PBOC to let the renminbi weaken, with the spot rate trading as much as 2% below the fixing for the first time in eight years. Ten-year US Treasury yields near 4.57% far exceed Chinese government bond yields of about 2.3%.
Expectations of a one-off yuan depreciation would raise the cost of dollar-priced feed imports into China, a potential bearish shock to US and Brazilian feed demand.
After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.