
China's central bank set the yuan's daily reference rate weaker than 7 per dollar, breaking a psychological barrier that had held since 2020. The fixing signals the authorities are allowing currency weakness while trying to manage the pace of decline.
A weaker yuan raises the cost of dollar-priced imports for China, which can reduce purchasing of US soybeans and feed ingredients and pressure related prices.
After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The PBOC fixing weaker than 7 per dollar on 9/26 broke a key barrier and signaled tolerance of depreciation, adding to the USD/CNY rise.