
The US dollar strengthened after the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5% to 3.75% on March 18, citing uncertainty from the Iran war and raising its inflation outlook to 2.7%. Gold fell as the firmer dollar and expectations of higher-for-longer rates outweighed safe-haven demand.
A stronger dollar and delayed rate cuts make US commodities more expensive for foreign buyers, pressuring dollar-denominated grain and oilseed export prices.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.