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A University of Chicago study published in Nature Plants finds a Dust Bowl-scale drought would cut US maize, soybean and wheat output as severely today as in the 1930s. Warming could produce similar losses even in normal rainfall years by mid-century.
The findings highlight long-term drought vulnerability of US crops, a risk premium argument but with no immediate supply change.
news.uchicago.eduRob MitchumDec 19, 2016After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
