Hot, dry September weather in Oklahoma disrupted soybean development during a key growth stage. Full-season soybeans suffered more than double-crop varieties, and state yields came in below earlier projections.
Analysts had expected a 2% increase before September.
Smaller regional soybean output reduces available supply for crushers and meal producers, supporting soybean and soybean meal prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.