UT Crops News warns that the three-month outlook favors warmer-than-normal temperatures for July through September, with precipitation near normal. Heat stress is likely for the 2017 crop, particularly during corn pollination and soybean pod fill.
Heat combined with water stress can cut corn and soybean yields sharply, supporting feed grain and soymeal prices. Irrigation can offset some of the risk.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.