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Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr said corn prices are near contract lows because of ample supply and strong USDA crop ratings. A hot start to July raised doubts about USDA's yield estimate of 178.5 bushels per acre.
Weather models point to around 173.4 bpa, which is below the 174.5 trend and well under USDA's figure. November soybeans have traded above $9.
A yield estimate below USDA's figure would tighten the corn balance sheet and could support prices. Current prices still reflect the expectation of a large crop.
farmprogress.comBryce KnorrJul 21, 2020After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
