
Extreme heat and drought hit US crops from Texas and Louisiana to North Dakota, with spring wheat harvest particularly affected. Spring wheat good-to-excellent ratings fell to 38%, and corn and soybean kernel and bean sizes may be reduced in Corn Belt areas with low subsoil moisture.
The Canadian Prairies also face yield-cutting drought.
Reduced grain size and quality in key corn and soybean states point to lower yields and tighter supplies, supporting corn and soybean prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.