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July corn futures fell 51.5 cents (7.5%) in the week to June 17, 2021, as fund selling and long liquidation hit the CBOT. Models shifted toward more rain for the Corn Belt and cooler eastern weather, and the U.S. dollar index rallied sharply.
Improved near-term rainfall forecasts reduce drought premium in corn, soybeans and wheat, pushing feed grain prices lower for buyers. Continued dollar strength adds further downward pressure on dollar-denominated grain prices.
grains.orgJun 17, 2021grains.orgJun 17, 2021After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Fund liquidation, rainier Corn Belt models and a sharply higher dollar drove weekly grain losses that spilled into soybeans.
Fund long liquidation and a sharply stronger dollar index hurt CBOT grains broadly, with spillover to wheat.
