
Wheat futures touched their highest since May 2024 after Ukrainian and Russian strikes in the Black Sea, then erased gains after a USDA report showed weekly US wheat exports of 235,000 tons, the lowest since May and below analyst expectations. American wheat remains more expensive than European supplies.
Weak US export sales offset geopolitical support, showing demand is the limiting factor for US wheat despite risk premium. Price direction stays mixed while export competitiveness lags Europe.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 40 past neutral report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.1% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.