A Reuters survey expects wheat exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan to remain stable at 60.2 million tons in the 2020/21 season starting July 1. The three countries' harvest is estimated at 115.2 million tons, up 0.8%, while the EU harvest is likely to be smaller.
Stable Black Sea export volumes alongside a smaller EU crop limit upside for wheat prices in Africa and the Middle East. Possible Russian export quotas remain the key risk.
After 406 past neutral report events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.