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EU-level cereal yield forecasts in the latest MARS bulletin remain close to the five-year average. Durum yield fell 4% on revisions in France and Italy, while common wheat was cut in Italy, Romania and the Netherlands.
Yields at average levels mean no major supply shock, so the wheat price impact is limited.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.