The US National Biodiesel Board testified at a Commerce Department hearing that subsidised and dumped Indonesian biodiesel imports have injured US producers. It said the US biodiesel trade deficit with Indonesia grew 95% between 2014 and 2016.
It also cited Indonesian export taxes on crude palm oil as an unfair advantage.
If the US acts against Indonesian biodiesel imports, US soybean oil demand from domestic biodiesel producers could rise while Indonesian palm oil loses an export outlet. This is a trade-policy risk for vegetable oil prices.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.