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China exported about 8.8 million tonnes of urea in 2016, down 35% year on year, after anthracite-based capacity was shut. Phosphate exports fell 18% to 9.5 million tonnes, with DAP exports down 15%.
Analysts expect pressure on nitrogen prices to persist in 2017 as new capacity comes online, mainly in the US.
Lower Chinese export volumes have been offset by new non-Chinese capacity, so nitrogen and phosphate prices remain under pressure.
marketrealist.comAdam JonesJul 7, 2017After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 40 past bearish trade events, DAP moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.7% to +0.5%), and -2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
