FAO and OECD agricultural outlooks forecast global milk production to rise by 178 million tonnes, or 22%, over the next decade compared with 2014-2016. Most of the growth is expected in developing countries, led by Pakistan and India, while Western consumption favours butter and milk fat.
Consumption is forecast to rise alongside production.
A long-run production increase should add supply to world dairy markets and cap prices over time, although rising consumption in developing countries offsets some of the pressure. The effect is gradual rather than immediate.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.