US dairy domestic commercial use strengthened from February to April, led by yogurt, butter, cheese and dry skim milk. Dairy exports fell 2% year over year, while milk production rose 1.2% and milkfat output grew almost three times faster.
Accelerating milk and component output alongside softer exports adds supply pressure to the US dairy complex. This can weigh on dairy prices and modestly on byproduct feed demand.
After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.