
US milk output keeps rising, and USDA data show February butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk production was the highest ever for that month. Foodservice demand is recovering as restaurants reopen with more seating, easing some of the pressure.
USDA also plans to launch a Dairy Donation Program that reimburses processors for donating surplus milk.
Heavy milk supply relative to demand keeps dairy product and Class III milk prices under pressure. Recovering foodservice demand limits the downside, so the price effect is modest.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.