
Butter stocks were sharply higher than a year earlier and butter prices fell below $2 per pound by late September, dropping to $1.75 by end of October. Milk production in September rose 2.1% year over year on higher output per cow.
Weak exports and higher imports pushed the butter trade deficit to its largest since 2006.
Heavy milk output and large butter stocks point to continued downward pressure on dairy prices, reducing the value of dairy-based feed ingredients.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.