
The December 10 WASDE raised the 2024 U.S. milk production estimate by 300 million pounds to 226.3 billion pounds. The 2025 output forecast was raised to 228 billion pounds, and the 2024 all-milk price was lowered a dime to $22.65/cwt.
Higher production forecasts combined with lower cheese and butter prices point to weaker milk values, while firmer whey and nonfat dry milk prices partly cushion the decline.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.