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USDA's September supply and demand report raised its 2020 and 2021 US milk production estimates as milk per cow keeps rising. It lowered 2020 and 2021 cheese, butter and whey price forecasts and cut the 2020 all-milk price by $0.20 to $17.75 per cwt.
Higher expected output and lower product prices point to softer farm milk prices and weaker dairy feed demand ahead.
After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.