
USDA's February supply and demand report expects 2023 milk production to decline on reduced milk per cow and a smaller herd. USDA lowered cheese, nonfat dry milk and whey prices, and it forecasts lower Class III and IV prices.
The 2023 all-milk price forecast was cut by 90 cents to $20.70 per cwt.
Lower milk output and lower product prices point to softer dairy prices and a weaker outlook for milk-based feed ingredients. Buyers of dairy-linked feed inputs should expect less pressure from the dairy side.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.