USDA cut its 2017 US milk production forecast by 100 million pounds to 215.7 billion pounds because of slower fourth-quarter per-cow growth. It also lowered all-milk, Class III and Class IV price estimates, while raising skim-basis exports by 200 million pounds.
A smaller milk supply and lower price forecasts point to softer US dairy returns, and higher skim exports support powder demand. Feed buyers should expect little change in dairy-related feed demand.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.