
USDA's February supply and demand report left 2020 milk production unchanged but lowered forecast cheese and butter prices on relatively weak demand. The 2020 Class III and Class IV prices were reduced, and the all-milk price was cut by 40 cents to $18.85 per hundredweight.
Lower USDA price forecasts for cheese and butter signal weaker dairy revenue for producers and softer feed-buying capacity for dairy herds, pressuring milk-linked demand for feed.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.