
USDA's May WASDE raised its 2024 US milk production estimate to 227.3 billion pounds, up 1 billion from April. The 2025 forecast was set at 229.3 billion pounds, driven by more cows and higher output per cow.
The 2024 Class III price was raised to $16.75 per cwt and the all-milk price to $21.20.
Higher production forecasts add supply pressure on milk and dairy product prices, a modest bearish signal for dairy-based feed ingredients. Stronger cheese demand partly offsets this for Class III.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.