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USDA's September WASDE raised its 2017 US milk production forecast by 300 million pounds to 216 billion, reversing five months of cuts because of higher milk per cow. The 2018 production forecast was cut by 200 million pounds on slower cow inventory growth.
A higher 2017 supply estimate with lower 2018 output adds modest bearish pressure to near-term milk prices. The 2018 cut partly offsets it.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.