
USDA's June WASDE raised 2021 and 2022 US milk production estimates by 600 million and 800 million pounds respectively, citing higher cow numbers. The Class III price forecast was cut to $17.45 per cwt on lower cheese prices, while butter, nonfat dry milk and whey price forecasts were raised.
Higher production forecasts with a lower Class III outlook signal ample milk supply, bearish for milk-based feed ingredients, though higher butter and powder forecasts partly offset this.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.