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USDA's December WASDE raised its 2020 and 2021 US milk production forecasts for the fourth straight month on higher cow numbers. The 2021 Class III price was cut to $15.60 and the Class IV price was lowered on weaker butter prices.
Higher projected milk output and lower dairy price forecasts signal weaker US dairy prices ahead, reducing the value of dairy ingredients in feed.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.