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USDA lowered its 2022 and 2023 US milk production forecasts in the January 12 WASDE, citing lower milk per cow and a smaller 2023 herd. Cheese, butter and nonfat dry milk price projections for 2023 were also reduced.
Lower USDA production and price forecasts signal softer dairy product values and slightly tighter milk supply, affecting dairy-sector feed demand.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.