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USDA's August WASDE lowered 2021 and 2022 US milk production estimates by 100 million and 400 million pounds on fewer dairy cows. Class III and IV price forecasts for both years were cut, with 2021 Class III at $16.55 per cwt and 2022 at $16.16.
Reduced price forecasts across cheese, butter and whey signal softer milk values ahead, which weakens dairy-linked feed demand despite the small production cut.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.