
The National Milk Producers Federation is considering changes to the Class I fluid milk price mover. US milk production in February rose 0.8% year over year to 17.7 billion pounds, and the dairy herd continued to expand, with growth concentrated in the Midwest and Plains.
Expanding milk output against weak domestic demand is expected to pressure milk prices through spring. Lower dairy prices can reduce dairy farmers' feed purchasing power and dairy-product margins.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.